World Cup Day 2 on Polymarket: two matches, two very different market reads.

Canada vs Bosnia-Herzegovina (3pm ET, Toronto) — Canada at 53.5% to win, draw 27.5%, Bosnia 20.5%. Volume is $2.7M with a $1.7M spike in the last 24 hours. Home advantage at BMO Field is real, and smart money is backing it. Bosnia's physical, disciplined style with European league talent could frustrate, but 53.5% feels about right, maybe even slightly conservative.

USA vs Paraguay (11pm ET, SoFi Stadium) — USA at 47.5%, draw 29.5%, Paraguay 24.5%. Volume is $4.6M, more liquid, but the combined 54% chance USA doesn't win is the real story. The market isn't buying the home advantage narrative. Group D winner market has USA at 36.5% behind Türkiye at 38.5% — unusual for a host nation. Paraguay grinds results in South American qualifiers and will make this tight.

Canada win at 53.5% looks solid for a home opener. USA at 47.5% could be value if you believe the host narrative, but that 54% against them is the market screaming caution. Also worth watching: the "goal 20+ times" prop at 74.5% for USA-Paraguay tells you exactly how that game is expected to play out.